Paths of Influence for Innovations in Financial is and Technology Ecosystems

Predicting technological innovations in financial information systems (IS) and technology ecosystems has been challenging for technology forecasters and industry analysts due to their underlying complexity. Technology-based financial innovations over the past four decades, such as programmed trading in the 1980s, risk-adjusted return on capital-based financial risk management systems in the 1990s, high-frequency trading and Internet banking in 2000s, and now mobile payments in the 2010s, have all led to transformations in the financial services industry. What basis can be identified to predict such new innovations? And what areas of financial services will they affect? This study applies the technology ecosystem approach, extended to incorporate stakeholders’ strategic actions, to analyse the paths of influence for mobile payment technologies. Our ecosystem model brings together three core elements: emerging technology components, technology-based services, and technologysupported business infrastructure. We will also discuss its applicability to high-frequency trading in the equity markets.